European Commission's Vice-President for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn presented Friday the winter economic forecast for EU members, candidate countries and other non-EU countries.The Commission is predicting increased economic growth for Macedonia compared to the EU and the eurozone. Noting that the country in 2011 had a 2.8 % growth and no growth or deficit (0.0%) in 2012, the EC for this year forecasts that Macedonia's GDP will experience a growth of 1.5 %, and 2.5 % in 2014. In comparison, the Commission's projections for the EU are a 0.1% of growth in 2013 and 1.6% next year. Macedonia has been registering high unemployment since 2011 (31.4 %). It is projected to drop in 2013 and 2014 to 30.7 % and 30.0 % respectively. With respect to public deficit, Macedonia experienced a -3.8% deficit in 2012 and this year it is projected to be -3.5 % and -3.3 % of the GDP in 2014, which is contrary to the 1992 Treaty of Maastricht envisaging a maximum public deficit of -3 %. Furthermore, Macedonia's public debt in 2012 was 31 % of the GDP and this year it is expected to rise to 33.3% reaching to 35 % of the GDP in 2014. “During 2012, the economic deceleration was sharper than expected. In 2013, investments and exports are likely to be the main sources of growth, although the high import content of investment directly reduces the impact on growth. The high share of structural unemployment will limit the response of the unemployment to strong growth. The inflationary pressures are expected to remain low. In September 2012, the Government raised the deficit of 2.5 % of GDP to 3.5 %, mainly due to the low level of income. A similar deficit is expected in 2013, which will remain above 3 %, but also in 2014, reflecting the higher transfers and investment,” the commission said in the winter economic forecast for Macedonia.
Sources: Kanal5, Sitel; MIA; Makfax